Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

February 24, 2022


The article titled "Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)" discusses the potential risks related to heat stress in the UK based on the UK Climate Projections. The study emphasises the health risks posed by summer heat extremes in the UK, further intensified by socio-economic factors contributing to vulnerability. The research utilises regional climate model simulations from the UK Climate Projections to assess how different elements of extreme heat will vary across the UK in the future under global mean surface temperature warming levels of +1.5°C, +2.0°C, and +3.0°C above pre-industrial levels.

Why is this useful?

This research is crucial as it provides insights into the potential future risks associated with heat stress in the UK. By understanding these risks, policymakers, health professionals, and communities can better prepare and implement mitigation measures. The study also combines climate projections with socio-economic data, offering a comprehensive view of the areas most at risk. Furthermore, the research has developed an interactive app that allows users to assess sensitivities and uncertainties in the projected UK heat risk.


The article is authored by Alan T Kennedy-Asser, Gwilym Owen, Gareth J Griffith, Oliver Andrews, Y T Eunice Lo, Dann M Mitchell, Katie Jenkins, and Rachel F Warren. They are affiliated with various institutions including the School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol; Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool; MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol; and School of Environmental Sciences, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia.


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